2025 MLB Playoffs: Inside the Postseason WPA Leaderboard
Let's set aside the fact that the 2025 MLB playoffs began on the last day of September and might end on the first day of November -- because it's always October when it comes to playoff baseball -- and ask this: Who is this year's Mr. October?
If I told you that so far, it's a certain Japanese-born star on the Los Angeles Dodgers with a nasty splitter, you'd probably guess Shohei Ohtani. But the right answer is Roki Sasaki. At least, that's the answer according to the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric.
The Dodgers, the sole wild-card team remaining, have played an extra round, and Sasaki currently leads all players on baseball's final four rosters in playoff WPA with .706. Here's Sasaki's game-by-game performance:
Oct. 1: .015 (Finished the last inning of an 8-4 wild-card win over the Cincinnati Reds, a relatively low-leverage outing. But he looked good doing it, setting the Reds down in order with two whiffs.)
Oct. 4: .099 (Closed out the Dodger's 5-3 win in Game 1 of the division series at the Philadelphia Phillies. Something is definitely brewing here.)
Oct. 6: .208 (Sasaki faced one batter! But it was the last batter of the game, Trea Turner, and there were runners on the corners with two outs with the Dodgers clinging to a 4-3 lead. Turner grounded out, and the Dodgers grabbed a commanding lead in the series. L.A., we might have a new closer.)
Oct. 9: .384 (Sasaki retired all nine batters he faced during the eighth, ninth, and 10th innings of a 1-1 game. The Dodgers went on to win the series clincher, and any doubts that L.A. has found a lethal, high-leverage playoff reliever were erased.)
Numbers that function as narrative. That's WPA. We've been keeping tabs on these numbers as the playoffs have unfolded -- and will continue to do so. Our leaderboards and conclusions will be updated here as we move forward, so keep checking back.
Methodology
WPA works by attributing positive or negative values to plays based on their impact on the team's win probability. In small samples, one play can have a significant effect on WPA. A grand slam in a 10-0 game might not change the outcome much, but hitting the same homer with your team down 3-0 in the eighth could make a big difference.
Top 5 Alive
Best postseason WPAs from players on teams still playing:
Roki Sasaki, Dodgers | .706
Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners | .598
Alex Vesia, Dodgers | .591
Blake Snell, Dodgers | .581
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays | .434
Top 10 for Eliminated Players
Will Vest, Tigers | .848
Tarik Skubal, Tigers | .609
Kerry Carpenter, Tigers | .591
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees | .579
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians | .482
Ohtani Tracker
Since Ohtani inspired all of this, we should keep tabs on him.
Through the NLDS:
Hitting WPA: minus-.257
Pitching WPA: minus-.062
WPA: minus-.319 (267th of 284 players this postseason)
The WPA Pantheon
Top 10 Single-Season Postseason WPAs Since 1903:
David Freese, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals | 1.908
David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox | 1.892
Curt Schilling, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.748
Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees | 1.704
Yordan Alvarez, 2022 Houston Astros | 1.646
Carlos Beltran, 2013 Cardinals | 1.582
Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees | 1.545
John Wetteland, 1996 Yankees | 1.522
Eric Hosmer, 2014 Kansas City Royals | 1.443
Mariano Rivera, 2003 Yankees | 1.420
